U.S. employers added 80,000 jobs in October, as the unemployment rate fell to 9.0%. Though the raw number of jobs has been slowly increasing since the depths of the 2008 recession, the number of Americans in the labor force has also been increasing, meaning that the rate of unemployment has moved little. Still, with employment up, aggregate wages up, and other indicators staying at least slightly positive, risks of a double-dip recession in the U.S. are looking smaller and smaller.
Protests turned violent in Oakland in the ongoing saga of the Occupy protests last night. Occupy Oakland gained notoriety after an especially violent police crackdown last week, and an all-day, city-wide protest yesterday that shut down the Port of Oakland, but ended again in a late night riot.
The Occupy movement has been failing to move beyond a political novelty. Crowds have been shrinking as cold weather sets in, commentators continue to apply their own views to the movement in the absence of leaders, and police activity has been more responsible for headlines than the gigantic and growing wealth inequality in the U.S. The main factor in Occupy’s favor is that, whether they admit their support it of not, most Americans actually hold similar views on inequality.
After skyrocketing to the top of the polls, it was reveled that Republican Presidential contender Herman Cain had been twice accused of sexual harassment by former employees around twelve years ago while CEO of the National Restaurant Association. In both cases, the women in question agreed to leave their jobs with a sizable cash payout and a non-disclosure agreement.
In the first major scandal of the 2010 campaign, Cain has handled these revelations poorly. However, it is hard to assess what damage they will have on his campaign, which is primarily built on mistrust of the “establishment,” including especially the “mainstream media.” Cain’s base of support may either not be much concerned about the allegations, not believe them to be true, or to discredit them as Washington beltway bullshit. Such is the potential fate of any story that emerges in Politico.
In the rest of the G.O.P race, not much has changed. Romney can’t pull away, Perry can’t talk good, and no one else can win.
Chaos struck the Eurozone on Tuesday after the Greek P.M. said he would put the bailout plan up for a referendum, essentially asking Greek voters whether or not they would like to leave the Euro for a new, substantially weaker currency. This move could delay the Eurozone rescue agreement, and if it failed, could kill it altogether.
Further, controversies simply as to whether to hold the referendum or not threaten to bring down the Greek government, which would also damage the prospects of the Eurozone. Although no options are good for Greece, a referendum, especially a no vote, would probably cause even more damage to the Eurozone.
Today marks the day when the 7 billionth living person was born according to projections by the U.N. and other agencies. Of course, exact calculations are difficult and finding newborn number 7 billion is impossible, but that hasn’t stopped numerous groups from giving different infants the honor today.
The global human population is expected to reach around 10 billion by 2050, with growth slowing dramatically thereafter. However, there will obviously be huge strains on natural resources, the environment, and world institutions. And the most scary fact this Halloween: the world’s 6 billionth child is only a couple of weeks past his twelfth birthday.
The U.S. Air Force has been expanding its global drone program, now into Ethiopia and Somalia. Mindful of the 1993 Black Hawk Down incident, the military has been hesitant about deploying forces to really anywhere in Africa, recent adventures to Uganda notwithstanding. Revelations about an Ethiopian base and Somalian drone operations are hardly surprising, as President Obama has been greatly expanding drone flights since coming to office in 2009. Despite their questionable legality, unmanned drones have become highly effective, even in areas without an official U.S. military presence.
In the category of good news, U.S. GDP grew by 2.5 percent annualized last quarter. The unexpected rise was driven by increased consumer spending and fixed investment, two factors which had been lagging in the post-recession economy. Although a double-dip recession cannot be ruled out, it seems increasingly unlikely.
After a geopolitical allnighter, European leaders hammered out a crucial deal on the road to restoring the solvency of the Eurozone. Crucial points in the deal: 1. European banks holding Greek bonds agree to forfeit 50% of their value; 2. the Eurozone bailout fund will be drastically increased; and 3. capital requirements on banks will be increased to slightly insulate them.
Problems remain, of course. With the increased demands on mostly French and German banks, some will not have enough capital to cover losses on the Greek debt they hold. The next major problem is who pays to recapitalize these banks: the E.U. facilities, or national governments. French leaders want E.U. facilities to cover the losses because the banks most at risk are French. German leaders want national governments to pay for their own, for the same reason.
A major goal of the midweek summit was to soothe investor fears and calm the market, and measured agains that yardstick, it was a smashing success. European and U.S. stock markets shot up around 3%.
In a new chapter of the U.S. President’s ongoing and increasingly populist campaign, Obama announced broad executive measures to reign in student debt effective essentially immediately, and without the support of Congress. The measures allow students and alumni to consolidate their outstanding loans and further limits requirements on repayment, in a time where college costs are rising at twice the rate of inflation. Less clear, however, is if this measure will have a direct impact of continuing unemployment.
U.S. President Barack Obama announced on Monday new measures designed to offer mortgage relief to homeowners in a continuously tough economy. With Obama’s jobs bill effectively dead in the Senate, and a non-starter in the House, the President has instead sought ways to offer limited middle-class relief and economic stimulus that do not require Congressional approval.
Across the Potomac, newly-installed Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has been arguing against deep cuts to the Defense Department. Though most assumed that Panetta would oversee a series of defense cuts, he has instead sought to insulate Defense from the serious fiscal cuts spreading through Washington.
Both these incidents are part of the larger budget battle in Washington, in the face of a growing debt. Republicans have successfully moved the tone of the argument to a discussion not of if there should be cuts, but how much and what should be cut. However, fiscal cuts can further damage an already weak economy. The Congressional Supercommittee charged with solving the problem is due to report next month, though most expect their report to create more problems than it solves.
The first revolutionary country of the Arab Spring, Tunisia, held its first free elections for a national assembly tasked with drafting a new constitution. Turnout was far above expectations in a groundswell of optimism, democracy, and national pride. A moderate Islamist party is expected to win the election, whose leaders will then have to guide a coalition through the potentially uncomfortable task of reconciling Islamic principles and those of a democratic republic.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Pakistan on Friday to discuss joint efforts to find a settlement in Afghanistan. She both pressured Pakistan to cease all support for the Haqqani network, and announced that U.S. officials had met with the Haqqanis at a previous date. The Haqqani network originates in tribal western Pakistan, however they conduct many operations in Afghanistan against the United States, including an attack on the U.S. Embassy in Kabul in September. Despite this, if there is to be a political resolution to the Afghanistan war, the U.S. and Pakistan will have to find a way to reign in the Haqqanis.
In other Pakistan news, an Indian military helicopter and its crew were released several hours after being forced to land 25 kilometers inside Pakistan. It’s not clear how the helicopter wound up so deep inside Pakistan, however the speedy release points to improving relations between the two countries historically at odds.
U.S. President Barack Obama announced Friday that all U.S. troops will leave Iraq by the end of this year. The deadline of December 31st was became real when Obama and Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki failed to reach an agreement allowing U.S. forces to remain longer, despite limited Iraqi support for the option. Only around 200 U.S. Marines will remain in the country to protect the Embassy, as will around 16,000 U.S. diplomats and civilian contractors.
President Obama had opposed the Iraq war from the beginning, and had campaigned on the promise to end it. For its part, Iraq seems confident that it can handle the transition, despite persistent sectarian and ethnic strife. Further, the American withdraw could embolden Iran, which is looking for a leg up regionally, and especially in Iraq. Regardless, most Iraqis will not be sad to see American forces depart.
And as it to drive home the security concerns on Saturday, Turkey launched a major air and ground attack against P.K.K. rebels in northern Iraq and southeastern Turkey. The Turkish government reported that it had killed more than 49 of the Kurdish Worker’s Party rebels, who routinely attack Turkish military outposts from save havens just across the border in Iraq. The P.K.K is considered a terrorist organization by Turkey, the U.S., the E.U., and both the Iraqi government and the autonomous government of Iraqi Kurdistan.
Libyan N.T.C. fighters finally claimed control of Sirte and killed former dictator Col. Muammar Gaddafi today. Crowds took the the streets of Tripoli and other Libyan cities celebrating Gaddafi’s death even before it was confirmed, though circumstances surrounding Gaddafi’s death remain somewhat murky. It seems to have involved a French warplane and/or U.S. Predator drone making an air strike against a vehicle convey, along with a coordinated assault against the convey, and it is unknown as to whether Gaddafi died of his injuries or was executed by N.T.C. fighters.
The major problem now is that, without someone to hate, there is little to unite the various factions and tribes that make up Libya as they began to build their country.
Other than polls, the best way to gauge candidate success in a race, especially one as drawn out as the 2012 Presidential campaign is and is going to be, is the money game. After F.E.C. filings last week, we now know that President Obama has a solid lead with close to $100M dollars, more than the entire GOP field combined. Despite this, most commentators now expect that Obama For America will fall short of it’s original $1B aggregate prediction/boast from last quarter. However, keep in mind that these numbers only represent the known filings. This will be the first major election cycle with potentially huge amounts of undisclosed spending, thanks to Citizens United, so actual amounts will vary.
On the Republican side, Romney has a solid lead, Perry to place, Paul to show. Notable is that current polling frontrunner Herman Cain has raised only one sixth the money Romney has, though these numbers include the campaign as a whole and do not well reflect recent gyrations. Whereby gyrations is about the only sure statement one can make about the GOP nomination.
